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In aviation there is a curiosity or we could also call it a myth, which says that every time there is a plane crash, there will be two more. This is known as the "rule of 3" or rule of three in aviation..
Since many years, exactly from 1919, when the statistical registration of air accidents around the world began, some researchers detected a peculiarity.
Although it is not a rule as such, it is not always complied with and obviously it is not a law, it is a sittuation, Although it is a coincidence, it has been repeated several times throughout history..
before continuing, Let's differentiate what is an accident from an incident:
plane crash
It's an unexpected situation, that as a result of this event there is injury or death to people on board the aircraft or outside it and damage to property, be it the aircraft or other properties outside the aircraft.
An accident is also cataloged, when the plane as a result of what happened, it is totally irreparable or its damages are greater and it must be classified as a total loss.
There are some particular cases, where although by concept it can be classified as an accident, the plane can be repaired later.
air incident
like accidents, are an unexpected situation, but the difference is that in this one there are no injuries or victims generated by the event, as well as non-reparable damage to properties.
in an incident, the aircraft can be repaired within the parameters established by the manufacturer.
The "rule of 3" or rule of three in aviation
Now let's talk with data, although it is not a constant, if only the year is checked 2018, the rule is sometimes met. It must be clarified that there is no difference in days between each standard accident, but is usually fulfilled within a week of the first event.
We can see the following accident matches, complying with the “rule of 3” in aviation so far this year:
Air accidents 2018
| 06-Jan-2018 | Antonov An-2TP | YV1944 | Unknown |
| 07-Jan-2018 | Cessna 208B Grand Caravan | 5Y-FDC | Unknown |
| 09-Jan-2018 | Embraer EMB-110P1 Bandeirante | C6-MIC | Pineapple Air |
| 13-Jan-2018 | Boeing 737-82R (WL) | TC-CPF | Pegasus Airlines |
| 16-Jan-2018 | BAe-748 | S2-AAX | Bismillah Airlines |
| 16-Jan-2018 | Antonov An-2 | UK | Kazakhstan Air Defence Force |
| 25-Jan-2018 | Gulfstream G200 | 5N-BTF | Nestoil |
| 25-Jan-2018 | Airbus A320 | Unknown | Unknown |
| 29-Jan-2018 | Shanxi Y-8GX-3 | 30513 | China Air Force |
| 06-Mar-2018 | Antonov An-26 | RF-92955/52 | Russian AF |
| 11-Mar-2018 | Canadair Challenger 604 | TC-TRB | Basaran Holding |
| 12-Mar-2018 | DHC-8-402Q Dash 8 | S2-AGU | US-Bangla Airlines |
| 27-Jul-2018 | Antonov An-2R | 9S-GFS | Air Kasai |
| 27-Jul-2018 | Boeing 767-38EER | N641GT | Atlas Air |
| 28-Jul-2018 | ATR 72-500 (72-212A) | YJ-AV71 | Air Vanuatu |
| 30-Jul-2018 | Antonov An-2R | RA-40649 | private |
| 31-Jul-2018 | Embraer ERJ-190AR | XA-GAL | Aeromexico Connect |
| 04-Aug-2018 | Junkers Ju-52/3mg4e | HB-HOT | Ju-Air |
Air accidents 2019
| 9-Mar-19 | Douglas DC-3 | HK-2494 | LASER |
| 10-Mar-19 | Boeing 737 MAX 8 | ET-AVJ | Ethiopian Airlines |
| 10-Mar-19 | Hawker Siddeley HS-125-600A | fake reg. | private |
| 13-Apr-19 | Rockwell Sabreliner 65 | N265DS | Classic Aviation |
| 14-Apr-19 | Let L-410UVP-E20 | 9N-AMH | Summit Air |
| 16-Apr-19 | BN-2B-27 Islander | CC-CYR | Archipelagos Air Services |
we have to clarify, this is quite a subjective topic, since many accidents for example, They are not made public because they are not media interesting or they are really minor and putting them in the "rule of 3" would not be very logical..
This famous "rule" is used more when there are major accidents or there are deaths., but if we rely only on the general concept of what an accident is, the coincidences are greater and it is what we see in the tables above.
If accidents are reviewed every year, we will find that at least 8 Sometimes this "rule" would occur, but if it is based on major accidents such as the one involving Aeroméxico in Durango, this coincidence would greatly diminish.
Does it exist or is it pure coincidence? It depends on each person how they want to understand it, but one way or another, there is a constant.
I invite you to see the world list of accidents so that you yourself can find the “rule of 3” here every year.: https://aviation-safety.net/database/
Either way, It's just a curious fact, there is no reason to be afraid and aviation continues to be the safest means of transport in the world.
And you, what do you think?
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Another strange thing is that before the MD-11 and DC-10 were "downgraded" to freighters there were hundreds of accidents at any given time involving these. 2 aircraft models.
AND NOW??
There are so many MD'S and DC'S of Fedex, centurion, Western Global, AND NO ONE HAS CRASHED, what change?
Changed that the errors that generated those accidents were corrected.
Hundreds of accidents? What are you taking about?
it's very subjective, but in case it is, make it just a minor incident
Coincidence or rule is something that occurs quite frequently and cannot be denied.
Definitely, there is some relation.
The accident or incident description is wrong, there are incidents where a person dies and it continues to be an incident, for example when the propeller of an airplane hits a person, wound or kill her, it's an incident, In addition, the total destruction of an aircraft is not required for it to be an accident., landing on a non-locking gear leg and some surface touching the runway, It is an accident even if the damage is minor.
I disagree, the basic definition of an accident is when there is a death or total loss of the aircraft. The definition is obtained from ICAO.
I think it's a coincidence, similar to that of the "27 Club" of dead rockers. Getting a pattern for these cases would be to validate the butterfly effect.
Yes, I think the same, it's an unfortunate coincidence.