When will the Guayaquil airport collapse?

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We statistically review when the Guayaquil airport will reach its maximum capacity, which should generate the start of construction of the new airport in Daular.

In this days, again, they started talking about the project new airport of Guayaquil. Why? The President of Ecuador brought to the table that in the Taura Air Base A civil airport could be built that would be better located than Daular and would serve more cities on the south coast and southern mountains of the country..

This debate heated up on networks with many ideas and proposals, others with very wrong data, but the debate on aviation that is so needed in the country is valued. Among all the hundreds of comments, many said that the current Jose Joaquin de Olmedo Airport it's more than enough, that is enough and left over, but, will it be forever?

When will the Guayaquil Airport reach its maximum capacity??

My vision has always been that Guayaquil yes it will need a new airport (regardless of where it is done, but inside Guayaquil), but this should occur only when the current one reaches its maximum capacity, he declares., which is from 7.5 million passengers annually adding national and international departures and arrivals.

Does Guayaquil need a new airport?

To continue with this analysis, we must know that, the Guayaquil International Airport during the 2024 transported 4,167,249 of passengers for their, it is worth indicating, beautiful passenger terminal. Let us not forget that construction was initially scheduled for 2018, was later postponed to 2024 and until now, does not start.

as we see, to reach 7.5 million is missing quite a bit and the pandemic has directly affected this growth, it delayed and stopped. This is how the current movement of the 10 last years:

As we can see, the 2023 and 2024 They were historic years for Guayaquil, in which for the first time in their history the limit of 4 million annually, but the trend is not stable upwards, for all the reasons we have talked about here on the blog, but this 2025 should easily surpass last year.

However, We are going to answer the concern of this publication.

The projection gives us that the airport will grow annually between 3% a 5% (not counting pandemic but drops to an average of 0.47%), this is approximately 226,736 extra passengers from year to year.

The current data gives us the result, that based on an estimated projection and subject to the airport being able to have a growth boom, just for the year 2039 the demand trigger would be reached to open a new airport, of course and as I said, It could be sooner or later if some external situation like a pandemic or global crisis could affect the entire industry again.

It is worth indicating that, This projection is very conservative and I did it that way since, the air traffic conditions of the country and especially in the domestic ones, did not grow in 2024 and contracted.

It is important to know that airports are built in a technical and orderly manner., since there are millionaire investments behind, so we should not be surprised if the construction that, can take from 3 a 4 years, make the first stone laid 2035 (or sooner if demand accelerates) or even if due to political will it is done even when the current terminal has space to receive millions of passengers.

And you, what do you think? Will the new airport be built sooner or will we wait for demand to grow??

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