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The aviation industry is experiencing a boom in demand, but there is a serious and persistent problem that slows its growth: there just aren't enough planes, where are they?
The International Air Transport Association (THERE IT IS) just released a global perspective that highlights the magnitude of this supply chain crisis, and the figures are, frankly, amazing.
If you are a traveler, an airline employee or aviation enthusiast, This affects you directly..
Where are the planes?
According to THERE IT IS, although new aircraft deliveries are picking up, demand is far exceeding production capacity. The normalization of this structural imbalance is not expected before 2031-2034.
But, what is happening?
- missing deliveries: The accumulated delivery deficit is, at least, 5,300 planes. This is a huge hole in the world fleet.
- Record accumulation: The order book (el backlog) has surpassed the 17,000 planes, which is equivalent to almost 60% of the active fleet. Historically, This proportion was around 30-40%. This means that, with current production capacity, The wait to see these new models flying is almost 12 years.
Price of delay
Of course, you are huge and getting worse, They bring a direct cost to the airline industry that ends up being transferred to passengers, so it will not be strange that in a short time air tickets tend to rise, for having older fleets:
- As a direct result of this shortage, Airlines are forced to keep older aircraft in service, and this has consequences in your pocket.
- Aging fleet: The average age of the fleet has increased to 15.1 years (12.8 years before the pandemic). Older airplanes consume more fuel and require more frequent maintenance.
- direct cost: Supply chain bottlenecks will cost the airline industry more than $11 billion dollars just in 2025.
As Willie Walsh points out, IATA Director General, Airlines are “missing opportunities to strengthen their revenues”, improve its environmental performance and serve customers». In the end, These costs are passed on to you.: you will see more expensive plane tickets.
The problem is deeper than the lack of planes
The aircraft shortage crisis is not a simple problem of a single factory. Delays are being exacerbated by a complex mix of factors along the chain:
- Reduced production: Airframe production often exceeds engine production. Engines are limited by problems in existing units, resulting in new fuselages paralyzed waiting for their boosters.
- Slow certification: New planes take longer to be approved. Certification deadlines have passed from 12-24 months to four or even five years.
- Tariffs on metals and electronics (due to trade tensions between the US. UU. and China) are aggravating bottlenecks and raising maintenance costs.
- There is a critical shortage of skilled labor, especially in the manufacture of engines and components.
Aviation's immediate future is tied to the supply chain's ability to catch up. Until then, Airlines will have to remain creative with their aging fleets, and you must prepare for a more expensive and, potentially, with fewer options.
What awaits us? The solution is not immediate and it is not easy, since security in certification processes and engines is key, but without any doubt, Complicated years are coming in aviation until the different actors and manufacturers, achieve, if one day it happens, catch up on your obligations.
we will keep updating.
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