THERE IT IS: on 2026, business of records and microscopic margins

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The International Air Transport Association (THERE IT IS) has published its latest financial forecasts, offering a clear vision of what awaits the airline industry on 2026.

The headline is stability: profitability is maintained and historical records in volume are expected. Nevertheless, when breaking down the numbers, It is clear that airlines operate in an environment of extraordinarily tight margins, battling persistent headwinds such as supply shortages and rising costs.

In summary: The industry consolidates in the black with a combined profit of $41 billion, but the net profit margin stagnates in the 3.9%.

The 2026 will have historical numbers

The 2026 It is shaping up to be an unprecedented year in volume of activity, far exceeding pre-pandemic levels and marking the resilience of the global desire to travel.

The reality of the margin: $7.90 per Passenger

The most impressive data to understand the nature of this business is the real profit per unit. Although $41 one billion sounds like an astronomical number, distributed among billions of transactions and millions of assets, the net profit per passenger expected in 2026 it's just $7.90 USD.

As the Director General of THERE IT IS, Willie Walsh, This unit profit is minuscule compared to other industries, emphasizing the need for the value chain to recognize the value that airlines bring (that supports the 4% of world GDP).

The great challenges and operating costs

Despite demand-side tailwinds, the THERE IT IS underlines that operating costs and external constraints keep profit margin under extreme pressure.

The cost landscape is changing dramatically:

• Labor: They are expected to rise to $729 billion (+5.8%). Labor has become the largest cost component (28%) due to wage growth and the need to restore work capacity to pre-pandemic levels.
• Fuel costs: Fuel costs are expected to decrease slightly to $252 billion due to a drop in projected oil prices ($90/barrel at $80/barrel).
• PURE: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Purchases (PURE) will be shot at $4.5 billion, an essential component, although still low, of the total fuel bill (0.8%).

The main operational and financial constraint facing the industry is the fragility of the global supply chain, which manifests itself in two key areas:

• Aircraft delivery: Delays and backlog in the delivery of new aircraft by manufacturers do not allow airlines to fully capitalize on strong demand.
  • The airline industry needs more than 5.300 planes.
  • There are more than 17.000 aviones en espera por ser producidos.
  • The age of airplanes has passed 13.4 years to 15.1 years old since the pandemic.
  • Spare parts shortage continues to impact aircraft maintenance and downtime.
• Regulatory burden: IATA notes “significant” regulatory cost burden, mentioning attempts at reform in Europe (about cabin luggage) and the need for regulators to act on ICAO recommendations.

Finally, infrastructure remains a bottleneck. Capacity restrictions on air traffic and the incapacity of some airports (mentioning Heathrow) to implement cost reforms put competitiveness at risk. What's more, Geopolitical conflicts force routes to be diverted (airspace closure), increasing costs and reducing efficiency.

The 2026 It will be a year of financial stability and a testament to the relentless demand for air connectivity. Nevertheless, the figures of THERE IT IS They are a wake-up call. While the sector generates billions in revenue, margins remain critically tight, making the industry “shock sensitive”. The ability of airlines to maintain these levels of profitability will depend on how the supply chain recovers and how rising labor and regulatory costs are managed..

What do you think about these projections?? Will delays in aircraft deliveries be the main factor affecting ticket prices in 2026?

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