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More of 18 thousand new planes They are delayed and pending to be delivered on a global scale, which is causing airlines to have to fly with older planes.
Optimism for the recovery of global passenger traffic has an important handbrake that was discussed with deep concern in the corridors of the 82nd IATA Annual General Assembly on Rio de Janeiro: the global crisis in the supply chain and the delivery of new aircraft.
The technical data presented by the sustainability and economics team of THERE IT IS, reveal a scenario where airlines' operational efficiency and growth plans are coming up against an industrial wall that is difficult to overcome.
The gigantic "backlog" slows down profits and sustainability
The airlines They want to renew their fleets to incorporate more efficient and environmentally friendly models, but the manufacturers simply cannot cope. The total number of pending orders (backlog) Globally, it has reached a record number of 18.102 aircraft.
This historical saturation in production lines severely limits the industry's ability to make the necessary technological leap towards decarbonization, freezing advances in efficiency combustible which are traditionally achieved by receiving latest generation aircraft.
Unprecedented waiting times: blind planning
Due to this bottleneck, Air operators are forced to plan their networks with time horizons never seen before. The period between when an airline signs a purchase order and the day it finally receives the plane has escalated to critical levels:
- Single aisle aircraft (Narrowbody Jets): The average wait time skyrocketed to approximately 7 years.
- Wide-body aircraft (Widebody Jets): It is located near the 6 years.
- Regional jets and turboprops: They also show a sustained upward trend, surpassing the 4 years of waiting.
Buying an airplane today means, in practice, designing routes for the next decade without knowing with certainty the macroeconomic conditions that will prevail at the time of delivery.
Global production remains below records 2018
Although travel demand is at maximum levels, aircraft factories in key regions such as North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific have not managed to recover the pre-pandemic assembly rate.
While in 2018 a historical record was recorded with 1.816 aircraft deliveries, the projection for 2026 is estimated at 1.794 deliveries. The analysts of THERE IT IS considered practically "unlikely" (unlikely) achieve the theoretical goal of 2.357 planes for 2027, due to the persistence of structural failures in the supply of key components.
An aging fleet and a worrying increase in consumption
The direct consequence of slow deliveries is the inevitable aging of the active commercial fleet around the world.
Historic age record: The average age of aircraft globally exceeded 15 years, marking the highest level recorded in the history of commercial aviation.
The brake on fuel efficiency: Between 1990 and 2014, fuel consumption per ton-kilometer available (ATK) showed a constant decline thanks to technological innovation. Nevertheless, due to stagnation in deliveries, this reduction in consumption stopped completely, remaining flat and unchanged during the last years. Older planes consume more, which increases operating costs and hinders sustainability goals.
Resilience under pressure: engines and planes on the ground
To worsen the logistical outlook, industry faces unforeseen technical reliability issues that reduce current fleet availability:
- The 15% of the global fleet is currently in storage or out of service.
- Of the youngest fleet that is on land, an alarming 75% is directly linked to the technical problems of the Pratt engines & Whitney PW1000G.
As there are no new aircraft and a part of the young fleet is disabled due to a maintenance crisis., Airlines have had to squeeze their available resources: the utilization of operational aircraft reached a historical maximum in the second half.
The diagnosis of the summit in Rio de Janeiro it's clear. Airlines are doing their homework by maintaining optimal utilization and ordering thousands of efficient aircraft. However, The airline industry today is hostage to a broken airline supply chain and chronic manufacturing delays that threaten to increase operating costs and, consequently, the price of tickets for the end user in the medium term.
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