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Air transport in May 2026 showed sustained growth in load, while the passenger movement fell following the conflict in middle East.
Data published by the International Air Transport Association (THERE IT IS, for its acronym in English) for May 2026 reveal an airline industry marked by two divergent realities: a cargo sector that maintains robust growth and a passenger market that, although it shows signs of resilience, continues to feel the weight of the conflict in middle East.
a may 2026 very different for cargo and passengers
Global air cargo market recorded positive performance in May, with a total demand, measured in freight ton-kilometres (CTK), which increased a 6,0 % compared to May 2025. This growth was accompanied by a more moderate increase in capacity (ACTK), that went up a 1,9 %.
Willie Walsh, general director of the THERE IT IS, highlighted that growth was above trend in African regions, Pacific Asia, Europe and North America. In particular, African airlines led growth with an increase in 13,3 %, followed by the North Americans (10,5 %) and those of Asia-Pacific (8,0 %).
Nevertheless, the panorama is not uniform. Traders in the Middle East reported a contraction in 8,9 % interannual, reflecting the negative impact of regional conflicts. Despite this, Walsh maintained a tone of cautious optimism, pointing out that manufacturing production and global trade—which extended to 25 consecutive months its annual growth—continue to support demand. While jet fuel prices fell by 16,3 % compared to April, they still maintain a 93,5 % above year-ago levels, forcing airlines to adapt their operations to protect their margins.
Passenger transport: resilience in a complex environment
Regarding the passenger market, the total demand (RPK) recorded a drop in 2,2 % interannual. However, by excluding the direct impact of the conflict in the Middle East—where demand contracted 28,4 %—, The global market would have experienced a growth of 0,7 %.
The report highlights that the drop in passengers in the Middle East is smaller than that recorded in April, suggesting a progressive recovery and notable resilience of the region. In other markets, such as North America and Asia, The observed contractions were mostly related to specific conditions in the domestic markets in USA and China.
Despite the challenges, operational efficiency reached record levels. The global passenger load factor stood at 83,5 %, the highest level recorded for the month of May. "Passenger demand remains resilient in the face of high fuel prices and airfares", Walsh stated.. The manager warned that, as uncertainty persists in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, the airlines, that operate with narrow margins close to the 2,0 %, will continue to face the need to adjust their rates to cover high operating costs.
With the cargo sector consolidating itself as an engine of growth and the passenger sector adjusting to a new geopolitical reality, the airline industry faces the second half of 2026 cautiously, focused on operational adaptation and financial resilience.
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