Air commercial agreement between Ecuador and Canada was approved

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An important news was given this week from the National Assembly of Ecuador, where the commercial air agreement between Ecuador and Canada was approved, which will bring important benefits to the country, so touristy as comercially.

Today in the #National Assembly from #Ecuador was approved #Air Transport Agreement with #Canada, that will allow the start of direct flights ✈ https://t.co/H4PaaySRgf

— Nicholas Larenas ✈️ (@n_larenas) September 5, 2017

This agreement has the main objective of allowing the start of direct flights between both countries, since it modifies or creates a bilateral agreement between both nations, so airlines of any of the 2 sides may request the start of flights within the legal framework that supports it.

Since the beginning of operations of the Nuevo Mariscal Sucre de Quito, there has been talk of the potential for a Canadian airline to start direct flights, since the main investors in the construction of the new terminal were from Canada. It's been more than 3 years and flights to Canada from Quito or Guayaquil, have not been finalized, principally, due to the lack of the necessary bilateral agreements.

Now that the legal framework exists, chances are high, mainly taking into account the flow of Canadian tourists, which annually travel to South America seeking to escape the cold and Ecuador with its Galapagos Islands, Amazon or Coast, they are a real eye catcher.

Would a direct flight from Canada to Ecuador be profitable?

The data from the Ministry of the Interior are as follows:

According to these data, so far from 2017 have entered Ecuador 15.045 Canadians and all 2016 entered 29.886, so this 2017, if you follow the trend, there would be a small downward variation in tourists of Canadian nationality in Ecuador.

Now let's look at the specific case of Quito, city ​​that would possibly be the one selected to start this connection:

Canadian tourists occupy the 3% of tourists who arrive in Quito year after year.

in position, Canada is in the fifth place of entry of tourists to Quito, we assume that this number is very close to the rest of the country. They entered Quito on 2016 a total of 18.419 tourists of that nationality, what is more than 50% at the national level.

Let's do quick numbers. Without a year to Ecuador they arrive 30 thousand people from Canada, give us some 82 daily people and if we take that they must return to their country, would 41 outbound passengers 41 back, low enough for a flight of more than a little more than 6 hours if the origin is Toronto and has a distance of 3.015 miles, TRUE?

Then, It is profitable? If we look at my numbers, which are very basic and without much context, no, but one factor is missing, Ecuadorians. Information that the Assembly shared during the vote of this agreement, it was indicated that at least in Canada there is a colony of more than 100.000 Ecuadorians, quite an important number and finally we must add the students (there are quite a few exchange and study programs with Canada) and tourists (Canada is a country with a huge tourist market and it sure attracts many Ecuadorians every year., that with better connectivity, increase).

PRO Ecuador data shows a significant increase in recent years of Ecuadorians going to Canada, which reaffirms what was mentioned above about the potential to generate traffic from Ecuador, although traffic from Canada has been going down in the same period.

We must not forget the Canadian investment in mining projects in Ecuador, this adds additional traffic for potential flights.

A final factor is the load, which could help or even make this flight profitable, but the distance and autonomy of the planes could slow it down a bit. The signing of a trade agreement between Ecuador and Canada will be important to support this connection.

Yes OK, in the last 4 years, both exports and imports to and from Canada are down, the number is important and roses continue to be the main product from Ecuador to the northern country, followed by cocoa and shrimp.

With these numbers you have to be realistic, not enough for a daily flight, but maybe yes for some 3 weekly initially until the route is developed, treaties are signed and the impossible is done to sustain the route.

For this route to become attractive, both for Canadian airlines, as for those of Ecuador, you have to work at several points, as side and side tourism promotion, Market studies, creation of commercial agreements, Lifting of visa for Ecuadorians for tourism or in transit? or facilitation of procedures, etc.

An important point is to determine where tourists from both countries come from and where they go or the place of residence of Ecuadorians in Canada.. Toronto, Quebec, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton or Winnipeg which are the main cities could originate or be the destination of the flight, but where is the market? Only one study can tell..

What airlines could fly between Canada and Ecuador?

On the Canadian side my bets are as follows:

WesJet

has a fleet of 139 planes and a large network of domestic destinations. It has international destinations to Central America, United States and the Caribbean. The plane with which they could fly to Ecuador is the Boeing 737 700 MAX or any of the MAX variant that will arrive at the airline from the end of 2017.

Sunwing

It is a very similar case to Wesjet, but they have a fleet of 38 planes. In recent years they have expanded their international operations. For example, they fly to Cartagena in Colombia and with the arrival of their new Boeing 737 800 MAX, the route to Quito would be within its autonomy.

Air Canada y Air Canada Rouge

Between them they have more than 380 airplanes and obviously, they are the largest in canada. Air Canada flies to Brazil, Argentina and Chile, while Rouge flies to Peru and Colombia, so flying to Ecuador shouldn't be so far fetched. of both airlines, the plane that could fly to Ecuador could be both the new Boeing 737 800 O 900 MAX that will enter service for Air Canada or the Airbus A319s that operate both.

Air Transat

in fleet, the smallest of the 4 What am I analyzing?, but internationally, It has grown quite a bit and years ago this airline mentioned Ecuador in its expansion intentions., so it is a strong candidate for this point. The only problem, it would be his fleet, which at the moment is limited in autonomy to reach Ecuador, at least until the new ones arrive 10 Airbus A321 NEO that the airline has ordered, which would come from 2019 and have an autonomy of 3.500 miles.

The Ecuadorians

From Ecuador we already know them, Tame EP, Avianca Ecuador and LATAM Ecuador. Honestly, given the air situation in the country, I see it less possible that some Ecuadorian covers the route, but in case they did, the 3 they have Airbus A319 aircraft, that given the distance of more than 3.000 nautical miles, would be the perfect one to do it because of its autonomy of 3.700 nautical miles.

Now it only remains to wait and see the progress of this agreement, that frequencies approved by country are defined, reciprocity, immigration issues and many more topics, which makes us think that it will happen at least 1 year until we can know something concrete, but the initial step has been taken and it is positive for Ecuador in every way.

The Canadian market is huge and has great potential for Ecuador, This agreement must be promoted at all levels.

 

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