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When the emergency of coronavirus end or start to go down, ¿qué pasará con el costo de los pasajes aéreos? ¿Subirán o bajarán?
Always attending to and responding to the many questions that have been asked about the futuro de la aviación una vez que toda esta situación termine, intentaré responder en esta post a una que me llamó mucho la atención.
Post coronavirus, what will happen to the cost of airfare?
Más que decir que pasará, es lo que por lógica debería pasar con los precios que existían en el mercado antes de la emergencia mundial.
Quiero recalcar que estas palabras que vienen no son una garantía o mucho menos un hecho concreto y confirmado, más bien es una estimación, pronóstico o análisis de la situación actual y lo que vendría a futuro.
What can happen, let's divide it into 3 possible panoramas:
Panorama 1
- Everything remains the same: los precios que conocíamos se mantienen en búsqueda de retomar la rentabilidad conocida y que las aerolíneas conocían hasta antes de la emergencia. En este panorama podríamos ver un número similar de pasajeros a los que vimos antes en unos meses que todo vaya volviendo a la normalidad.
Panorama 2
- Prices rise: tomando en cuenta que se esperan pérdidas de más de 130 mil millones de dólares para la industria, las aerolíneas podrían tomar la decisión de incrementar sus precios con el objetivo de recuperar ingresos y salir adelante, aprovechando la necesidad que la gente tendrá de volver a volar. Sería en este panorama menos pasajeros, pero pagando más.
Panorama 3
- Prices go down (mi pronóstico): a weakened industry, desconfianza de los usuarios por subirse a un avión por temor de poder contagiar la enfermedad, hará que los aviones estén más vacíos de lo esperado, ante este panorama las aerolíneas se verán obligadas en reducir los costos de los pasajes aéreos y a su vez, lower your profit margins, all with the aim of stimulating the market and regaining people's trust.
Whatever the scenario, la situación será crítica para la gran mayoría de aerolíneas y tanto gobierno, como economía que gira en torno a la industria deberán poner de parte para que volvamos todos a volar.
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I bet on the panorama 2, It is true that optimistic opinions speak of economic recovery, In the same way we must be realistic, of what panorama 3 You can talk when there are airlines covered by the bankruptcy decree, which leads to layoffs of your employees, can anyone operate with it 30% of his ability ???
Personally I doubt it, there are many costs involved, in addition to the legislation of each country and operating costs, less passengers less revenue, less money to pay creditors, a globally battered economy, who sees their income reduced by increasing their cost of living due to biosafety regulations, I respect the criteria, but there is no one blinder than the one who does not want to see…!!!
Equal, I'm leaning towards the third part, in which airlines would have to lower fares or, at least stay at pre-pandemic rates.
I agree, third scenario, they will necessarily have to lower the price of air tickets, although with the danger that passengers will not respond.… and small airlines are on the verge of bankruptcy.
I agree, third scenario, they will necessarily have to lower the price of air tickets, although with the danger that passengers will not respond.… and small airlines are on the verge of bankruptcy
I lean towards the panorama 2 or at best panorama 1:
Passengers will have fewer options (routes and airlines) and higher prices.
The crisis will cause companies to reduce their fleets (it's already happening), as well as many unprofitable routes. Some companies (the weakest) will disappear, and will be absorbed by other companies, reducing competition. Solid airline groups will have control of the market.
further, for economy of scale, as there are fewer planes in the air, There will be fixed costs in the airlines that will affect the price of tickets.
In the case of Colombia, in addition to an increase in flight prices, We will also be affected by the exchange rate in the medium and short term..
All this already happened in the 9/11.
I agree with your comments.
what happened in 9/11?
you mean September 2011? the twin towers
very good post, In the same way I lean towards the panorama 3 since the industry will need to stay afloat by lowering its costs and regaining confidence in travelers. I think it is a good time to make alliances with ministries or tourism secretaries to offer packages so that everyone in the tourism chain benefits.. As well as offering travelers discount vouchers to family members for frequent routes and/or trips.. The most important thing will be the innovation in marketing that the airlines will propose.
Key what you say, ministries or tourism chambers will be key to recovery.