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New forecasts THERE IT IS show a complicated picture for Latin America, where a drop in 49% of air traffic during 2020. Photo www.aeroin.net
IATA has updated the report on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Air passenger revenue will fall $314 billion in 2020, a fall of 55% with respect to 2019. The 24 of March, IATA estimated 252 $1 billion in lost revenue (-44% with respect to 2019) in a scenario of three months of severe travel restrictions.
The latest data shows that the crisis has worsened even more since then and reflects the following parameters:
- Severe restrictions on domestic travel for three months.
- Some international travel restrictions will be extended for more than three months.
- Severe global impact, including Africa and Latin America, where the presence of the disease has been lower and it was expected that the March figures would reflect a lower impact.
world level
Annual passenger demand is expected (domestic and international) drop a 48% with respect to 2019 in the world:
| Region | RPKs
2020 (vs 2019) |
Passenger profit 2020 vs. 2019 |
| Pacific Asia | -50% | -113 |
| North America | -36% | -64 |
| Europe | -55% | -89 |
| middle East | -51% | -24 |
| Africa | -51% | -6 |
| Latin America | -49% | -18 |
| Total industry | -48% | -314 |
Latin America
For airlines based in Latin America and the Caribbean this translates into a drop in passenger revenues. 18 billion USD in 2020 (the estimate of 24 March was 15 billion USD).
Breaking down the latest estimate by country shows the following effects on passenger revenue by market (all passenger traffic, from and within a market) and the corresponding direct and indirect job losses by country.
“The impact of this crisis on the region's airlines continues to be brutal. Passenger traffic has stopped and sources of income have dried up. No cost cutting will save airlines from a liquidity crisis that is imminent and will be severe, with negative effects on the economies and employment of countries. “Governments must act quickly”, said Peter Cerdá, IATA Regional Vice President for the Americas.
Aviation Latin America and the Caribbean:
- maintains a total of 7,2 million jobs,
- drives annually 4,1 million tons of air cargo,
- provides connectivity to 385 cities in the region,
- unites the region 160 cities in other parts of the world, and
- contributes with 167.000 millions of dollars (US) to the GDP of the region.
Table showing the contribution of aviation to GDP, employment, expenses generated by tourists and value of exports, all in USD.
| Country | Aviation contribution
to the country's GDP in % |
Aviation contribution
to the country's GDP in billions US$ |
Support for employment by the
aviation in number of jobs |
Tourist expenses
foreigners in billions US$ |
Export value
(all means of transport) in billions US$ |
| Argentina | 2.1 | 12.0 | 329,000 | 5.1 | 71.3 |
| Belice | 33.0 | 0.591 | 44,200 | 0.422 | 1.0 |
| Brazil | 1.1 | 18.8 | 839,000 | 5.8 | 258 |
| Chile | 2.8 | 7 | 191,000 | 3.4 | 79.5 |
| Colombia | 2.7 | 7.5 | 600,000 | 4.8 | 45.7 |
| Costa Rica | 9.0 | 5.0 | 155,000 | 3.8 | 20.0 |
| Republic
Dominican |
12.5 | 9.0 | 482,000 | 7.2 | 18.9 |
| Ecuador | 3.2 | 3.2 | 207,000 | 1.7 | 21.4 |
| The Savior | 4.0 | 1.1 | 116,000 | 0.872 | 8.9 |
| Guatemala | 1.0 | 1.1 | 75,900 | 1.6 | 14.0 |
| Honduras | 3.0 | 0.744 | 100,000 | 0.700 | 9.9 |
| Mexico | 3.05 | 37.4 | 1,400,000 | 21.3 | 435.6 |
| Nicaragua | 6.0 | 0.867 | 130,000 | 0.841 | 5.7 |
| Panama | 14.0 | 8.5 | 238,000 | 4.5 | 26.0 |
| Peru | 2.6 | 5 | 341,000 | 3.7 | 51.3 |
Source: THERE IT IS / Oxford Economics.
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