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IATA ve un panorama aún más complejo para la aviación donde las aerolíneas enfrentan una rápida «quema» de efectivo dada la crisis del coronavirus.
The International Air Transport Association (THERE IT IS) publicó un nuevo análisis que muestra que las aerolíneas gastarán más de $61 billion of its cash reserves during the second quarter of the 2020, to pay your current expenses, that ends the 30 June 2020, mientras que se estima una pérdida neta trimestral de $39 billion.
Este análisis se basa en la evaluación de impacto que IATA publicó la semana pasada, in a scenario in which the severe travel restrictions last three months. In this stage, la demanda de todo el año cae en un 38% y los ingresos por pasajeros de todo el año caen en $252 mil millones en comparación con el 2019. La caída de la demanda sería más profunda en el segundo trimestre de 2020, con una caída del 71%.
El impacto será severo, driven by the following factors:
- Revenue is expected to fall 68%. Esto es inferior a la caída esperada del 71% in demand due to the continuation of cargo operations, although at reduced levels of activity.
- Variable costs expected to decrease dramatically, in a 70% in the second quarter, largely in line with the reduction of an expected cut of the 65% in second quarter capacity. The price of jet fuel has also fallen sharply, although we estimate that fuel hedging will limit the benefit to a decrease in 31%.
- Fixed and semi-fixed costs are equivalent to almost half the cost of an airline. Semi-fixed costs are expected (including crew costs) are reduced by a third. Airlines are reducing what they can, as they try to preserve their workforce and businesses for the future recovery.
- These changes in revenues and costs result in an estimated net loss in $39 billion in the second quarter.
In addition to the inevitable costs, Airlines face refunds for sold but unused tickets as a result of mass cancellations resulting from government-imposed restrictions. The responsibility of the second quarter for these is a colossal $ 35 billion. Cash burn will be severe. We estimate that airlines could be spending $ 61 billion of its cash balances in the second quarter.
“Airlines cannot reduce costs fast enough to get ahead of the impact of this crisis.”. We are seeing a devastating net loss of $39 billion in the second quarter. The impact of that on cash usage will be amplified by a liability of $35 billion for possible ticket refunds», said Alexandre de Juniac, Director General and CEO of IATA.
Several governments are responding positively to the industry need with support measures. Countries that provide specific financial or regulatory aid packages to the industry include Colombia so far., USA, Singapore, Australia, China, New Zealand and Norway. More recently, Canada and the Netherlands have relaxed regulations by allowing airlines to offer travel coupons to passengers instead of cash refunds..
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