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According to THERE IT IS, the recovery of the airline industry after the global crisis over the COVID-19 it will take more than 4 years to recover numbers from 2019.
The International Air Transport Association (THERE IT IS) published a new analysis that shows the impact on air travel of COVID-19 that extends into the medium term, long-distance and international travel being the most affected. Quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel. A staged, risk-based approach to biosecurity measures harmonized worldwide, are fundamental to the restart of commercial flights.
Recovery of the airline industry
Together between IATA and Tourism Economics they modeled two air travel scenarios:
reference scenario
This depends on the opening of national markets in the third quarter, with a gradual opening much slower than international markets. This would limit the recovery of air travel, despite most forecasts pointing to a strong economic rebound later this year and into the 2021.
On 2021, we expect global passenger demand (measured in revenue per passenger kilometer, RPK) Be a 24% below the levels of 2019 and a 32% lower than the air passenger forecast for October 2019 that's why IATA para 2021.
We do not expect levels of 2019 until 2023.
As international markets open up and economies recover, there will be further growth in air travel from the low point of 2020. But even for 2025 we would expect global RPKs to be a 10% lower than previous forecast.
Pessimistic scenario
This is based on a slower opening of economies and the relaxation of travel restrictions., with lockdowns extending beyond the third quarter of 2020, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This would further delay the recovery of air travel..
In this case, the global RPKs in 2021 could be a 34% lower than the levels of 2019 and a 41% below our previous forecast for 2021.
The impact of long-distance travel will be more lasting
When recovery begins, expected to be led by domestic travel. An IATA survey of recent air travelers conducted in April 2020 found that the 58% you are certain or very likely to restrict or change your travel to domestic travel.
National Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) will only recover to levels of 2019 for 2022.
Avoid quarantine measures
IATA urges governments to find alternatives to avoid arrival quarantine measures as part of travel restrictions. IATA's April survey of recent air travelers showed that:
- The 86% of travelers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while traveling, and
- the 69% of recent travelers would not consider traveling if it involved a quarantine period of 14 days.
IATA's proposal is for a temporary, risk-based, layered approach to provide governments with the confidence to open their borders without quarantining incoming travelers and includes:
- Prevent the travel of passengers who are symptomatic with temperature screening and other measures.
- With asymptomatic travelers, governments should implement a robust system of health declarations and subsequent monitoring.
These measures are essential for the resumption of international travel.
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It is a bit difficult to predict what will happen to the airline market in the next two years, everything will depend on the behavior of the pandemic and the possibility of finding a vaccine to mitigate it. This would cause the disappearance of some companies, those who could not bear to be so long without flying.