The aviation industryón Eastá experiencing a boom in demand, but there is a serious and persistent problem that slows its growth: there just aren't enough planes, ¿dónde isán?
La Associationón International Transport Aéreo (THERE IT IS) just released a global perspective that highlights the magnitude of this supply chain crisis, and the figures are, frankly, amazing.
If you are a traveler, an airline employeeínea or an aviation enthusiastón, This affects you directly..
¿Dónde isán the airplanes?
Sayún the THERE IT IS, although deliveries of new aircraft areán rebounding, the request isá far exceeding the production capacityón. La normalizationón of this structural imbalance is not expected before 2031-2034.
But, ¿thaté it is what it isá going?
- missing deliveries: The déaccumulated delivery deficit is, at least, 5,300 planes. This is a huge hole in the world fleet.
- Accumulateón récord: The order book (el backlog) has surpassed the 17,000 planes, which is equivalent to almost 60% of the active fleet. Histórichly, this is what we proposeón was around the 30-40%. This means that, with the production capacityón actual, The wait to see these new models flying is almost 12 años.
Price of delay
Claro isá, Eastás huge and getting worse, bring a direct cost to the industryéArea that ends up being transferred to passengers, so not beá strange that in a short time the tickets toéprisoners tend to rise, for having fleetsás old:
- As a direct result of this shortage, the aerosolsíairlines are forced to keep m aircraft in serviceáold s, and this has consequences in your pocket.
- Aging fleet: The average age of the fleet has increased to 15.1 años (12.8 añbefore the pandemic). The planes máold people consume más fuel and require more maintenanceás frequent.
- direct cost: Supply chain bottlenecks costán to the industryérea más de $11 one billion dólares only in 2025.
How ifñala Willie Walsh, IATA Director General, the aerosolsíit is a sinán «missing opportunities to strengthen your income, improve your performanceñor environmental and serve customers». In the end, These costs are passed on to you.: verás avi ticketsón máIt's expensive.
The problem is más deeper than the lack of planes
The aircraft shortage crisis is not a simple one-size-fits-all problem.ábrica. The delays areán aggravated by a complex mix of factors along the chain:
- produceóreduced n: The productionónumber of airframes often exceeds productionónumber of engines. The engines areán limited by problems in existing units, resulting in new fuselages paralyzed waiting for their boosters.
- Slow certify usón: New planes take más to be approved. Certification deadlinesón have passed 12-24 months to four or even five toños.
- Tariffs on metals and electricityónica (due to trade tensions between the US. UU. and China) Eastán aggravating bottlenecks and raising maintenance costs.
- There is a shortageískilled labor ethics, especially in manufacturingónumber of engines and components.
The immediate future of aviationón isá tied to the supply chain's ability to catch upía. Until then, the aerosolsíneat tenderán have to continue being creative with their aging fleets, y tú dutyás prepare you for a more travel panoramaás expensive and, potentially, with fewer options.
¿Whaté awaits us? the solutionón is not immediate and it is not fácil, since security in certification processesón and in engines it is key, but without any doubt, they come toñthe complicated ones in aviationón until the different actors and manufacturers, achieve, if anythingún dícome on, catch upíin his obligations.
we will keep updating.
