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The JET A-1 crisis: Dependency and volatility marked the agenda in THERE IT IS en Wings of Change 2026 on Santiago de Chile.
Within the frames of change 2026 on Santiago de Chile, The analysis of the fuel market took a leading role in the face of the complex reality that the supply of fuel goes through. JET A-1. The global closure of refineries, especially on the west coast of the USA and Europe, has radically transformed trade routes, increasing the distance between production centers and demand centers. This logistical disconnection is, according to experts, the main reason why aviation fuel prices have escalated much more aggressively compared to other refined products.
Worrying Jet A-1 inventory situation
The vulnerability of Latin America was exposed with forceful figures during the event sessions. Currently, the region depends on a 50% of imports to satisfy their fuel demand. Extreme cases such as Panama, with a dependence on 100%, or the Dominican Republic with a 66%, They underline the logistical fragility of the continent. Even larger markets like Mexico (54%) and Chile (50%) are forced to look toward the Gulf Coast of the USA as your main supplier, an area that today faces fierce competition for the same barrels due to capacity cuts on the North American east and west coasts.
The Strait of Hormuz factor
The situation is aggravated by tensions in the Middle East. Although recent ceasefire announcements offer a momentary respite, The industry cautiously observes the “Peace Plan of 10 points". There is a critical disagreement between the parties on issues such as uranium enrichment, which keeps the risk of a new escalation latent. If traffic is fully reopened today, the market would take at least 20 days just to clear the accumulated flow, which generates a persistent disconnection between physical markets and the prices reflected on the blackboards.
The situation has led to global fuel inventories suffering historic falls. While production has been reduced by 20%, maritime fuel trade has experienced a contraction in 42%. This scenario poses a dilemma for refineries in the months of greatest demand: The need to prioritize gasoline production for land consumption could generate a critical shortage of JET A-1, leaving aviation in a position of competitive disadvantage compared to other energy sectors.
Despite partial relief in Brent crude oil prices, refining margins (cracks) aviation fuel prices are at their highest levels in history. The projections suggest that, even in an optimistic scenario of stability, Rebuilding lost inventories could take months, maintaining a "short" or loss-making market position for an extended period. If geopolitical tensions resurface and the Strait of Hormuz closes again, the industry could face a barrel of crude oil exceeding the 200 Dollars, even surpassing the inflationary peaks of two decades ago.
Finally, the message for decision makers in Latin America it's clear: The region is navigating uncharted waters where operational efficiency and diversification of supply sources are no longer optional.. The impact of maritime transport, which must now avoid conflict zones by extending travel times of 14 in cases 40 days to reach Europe, ends up indirectly affecting the availability of product for the south of the continent, consolidating a supply crisis that will force the industry to deeply restructure its network costs.
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