Sayún THERE IT IS, the recoveryón of the industry toéarea after the global crisis COVID-19 to takeá más de 4 años in recoveringúgroupers 2019.
La Associationón International Transport Aéreo (THERE IT IS) publicó a new yearálysis showing the involvementón to trips toéCOVID-19 consequences that extend in the medium term, long-distance and international travel being the más affected. Quarantine measures upon arrivalñarían aún más confidence in traveléprisoners. A staged, risk-based approach to biosecurity measures harmonized worldwide, are fundamental to the restart of commercial flights.
Recover usón of the industry toérea
Together, IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two travel scenarios toéprisoners:
reference scenario
This depends on the opening of national markets in the third quarter, with a gradual opening much más slower than international markets. This limitíto recoverón of trips toéprisoners, although the greatestía of the pronóstatics point towards a strong economic reboundómonkey at the end of this yearñor and during the 2021.
On 2021, we expect global passenger demand (measured in income per kiloópassenger meter, RPK) Be a 24% below the levels of 2019 and a 32% inferior a la overhangsónumber of passengerséprisoners of October 2019 that's why IATA para 2021.
We do not expect levels of 2019 until 2023.
As international markets open and economiesíto recover, hornbeamá further growth in travel toéinmates from point más low 2020. But even for 2025 waitíWe loved that global RPKs were a 10% más lower than the pronóprevious static.
Pessimistic scenario
This is based on an aperture más slow of the economsías there relaxed herón of travel restrictions, with locks that extend más allá of the third quarter of 2020, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This delayía aún más to recoverón of trips toéprisoners.
In this case, the global RPKs in 2021 couldían ser un 34% más lower than the levels of 2019 and a 41% below our pronóprevious aesthetic for 2021.
The impact of long-distance travelá máit's durable
When recovery beginsón, expected to be led by domestic travel. An IATA survey of travelers toérecent inmates carried out in April 2020 foundó that he 58% are certain or very likely to restrict or change your travel to sun traveléstatic.
Go KilóNational Revenue Passenger meters (RPK) will only recoverán at the levels of 2019 for 2022.
Avoid quarantine measures
IATA urges governments to find alternatives to avoid arrival quarantine measures as part of travel restrictions. IATA's April survey of travelers toérecent inmates showedó what:
- The 86% of travelers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while traveling, and
- the 69% of recent travelers not to consideríto travel if it involved a personíquarantine ode 14 días.
IATA's proposal is for a temporary, risk-based, layered approach to provide governments with the confidence to open their borders without quarantining incoming travelers and includes:
- Prevent the travel of passengers who are symptomaticátics with the detectionón temperature and other measurements.
- With asymptomatic travelersáticos, governments dutyían implement a robust system of health declarations and subsequent monitoring.
These measures are essential for the resumptionón of international travel.
It is a bit difficult to predict what will happen to the airline market in the next two years, everything will depend on the behavior of the pandemic and the possibility of finding a vaccine to mitigate it. This would cause the disappearance of some companies, those who could not bear to be so long without flying.