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The airline industry is optimistic about the reopening of borders and updates its forecast to return to numbers of 2019 pre-pandemic in new report from THERE IT IS.
Better times are coming for aviation and tourism, This is indicated by the International Air Transport Association – THERE IT IS in a new report, there is optimism as long as the borders continue to open.
The world must keep moving and air transport is key to sustaining million jobs, as well as the local economy of the countries.
Regrettably, the worsening of the pandemic and the beginning of a marked recovery that has taken longer than expected, mainly due to the delayed distribution of the vaccine, as the only concrete means to get out of the current crisis, continues to seriously affect the global airline industry.
Signs of recovery are being felt in some markets thanks to the summer season in the northern hemisphere or announcements such as the one for Spain that will allow vaccinated tourists to travel without restrictions.
These little steps, but important steps have generated an atmosphere of optimism in the airline industry, generating new encouraging forecasts:
- On 2021, global passenger numbers are expected to rebound as 52% from pre-COVID-19 levels (2019).
- On 2022, global passenger numbers are expected to rebound as 88% from pre-COVID-19 levels.
- On 2023, Global passenger numbers are expected to exceed pre-COVID-19 levels by 105%.
- For 2030, worldwide passenger numbers are expected to have risen to 5.600 millions. That would be a 7% below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to COVID-19.
- After 2030, air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline case of limited market liberalization, which yields an average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of the 3,2%. IATA's pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8%.
How can we notice, and current full flights confirm people's need to travel, which will promote recovery remembering that it was estimated for the 2024 O 2025 get to the numbers 2019.
This optimistic context of the airline industry should be driven by the imminent reopening of Europe, following the example of Spain, and the rapid recovery of Asian markets, all provided that the necessary vaccination process is advanced in an effective and equitable manner among nations.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue per passenger-kilometers (RPK), expected to grow at an annual average of 3% Come in 2019 and 2039. This is due to the expected strength of domestic markets such as China with large numbers of passengers and shorter distances..
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