La Associationóno. of Transport AéInternational prisoner (THERE IT IS) has published his úlatest financial forecasts, offering a viewóclear of what awaits the industry toérea on 2026.
The headline is stability: profitability is maintained and r are expectedécords histórich in volume. Nevertheless, when breaking down the núheritage, It is clear that the aerosolícompanies operate in an environment of máExtraordinarily adjusted genes, battling persistent headwinds such as supply shortages and rising costs.
In summary: The industry consolidates in núblack groupers with a combined profit of $41 billion, but the net profit margin stagnates in the 3.9%.
The 2026 tenderá números histórich
The 2026 is emerging as añor unprecedented in volume of activity, far exceeding pre-pandemic levels and marking the resilience of the global desire to travel.
| Key indicator | Projectionón 2026 | Exchange vs. 2025 |
| Total Passengers | 5.2 billion | +4.4% |
| Busy factorón | 83.8% | Continually réhigh cord |
| <Total Revenue | $1.053 trillions | +4.5% |
| Net profit (Total) | $41 billion | +3.8% |
The reality of the margin: $7.90 per Passenger
The data más shocking to understand the nature of this business is the actual profit per unit. Although $41 a billion sounds like an astronomical numberómica, distributed among billions of transactions and millions of assets, the net profit per passenger expected in 2026 it's just $7.90 USD.
As the Director General of THERE IT IS, Willie Walsh, this unit gain is minúscale compared to other industries, emphasizing the need for the value chain to recognize the value that airlinesíneas contribute (that supports the 4% of world GDP).
The great challengesíos and operating costs
Despite demand-side tailwinds, the THERE IT IS underlines that operating costs and external constraints keep the profit margin under pressureón extrema.
The cost picture isá changing drástically:
- Labor: They are expected to rise to $729 billion (+5.8%). Labor has become the largest cost component (28%) due to wage growth and the need to restore work capacity to pre-pandemic levels.
- Fuel costs: Fuel costs are expected to decrease slightly to $252 billion due to a caída on projected oil pricesóleo ($90/barrel at $80/barrel).
- PURE: Aviation Fuel Purchasesón Sustainable (PURE) will shootán a $4.5 billion, an essential component, although toúN LOW, of the total fuel bill (0.8%).
The principal narrowedón operational and financial problem facing the industry is the fragility of the global supply chain, which manifests itself in two áKey areas:
- Aircraft delivery: Delays and backlog in the delivery of new aircraft by manufacturers do not allow airlines toíaim to fully capitalize on the strong demand.
- The industry toéarea needs más de 5.300 planes.
- There are más de 17.000 aviones en espera por ser producidos.
- La edad de los aviones pasó from 13.4 añaxis a 15.1 años de edad desde la pandemia.
- La escasez de piezas de repuesto sigue afectando el mantenimiento y el tiempo de inactividad de las aeronaves.
- Carga regulatoria: IATA señala la «significativa» carga de costos regulatorios, mencionando intentos de reforma en Europa (sobre el equipaje de cabina) y la necesidad de los reguladores de actuar sobre las recomendaciones de la OACI.
Finally, la infraestructura sigue siendo un cuello de botella. Las restricciones de capacidad en el tráI'm theéreo y la incapacidad de algunos aeropuertos (mencionando a Heathrow) para implementar reformas de costos ponen en riesgo la competitividad. Además, los conflictos geopolíticos obligan a desviar rutas (cierre de espacios aéprisoners), aumentando costos y reduciendo la eficiencia.
The 2026 to beá añor financial stability and a testament to the relentless demand for connectivity toérea. Nevertheless, the figures of THERE IT IS They are a wake up callón. While the sector generates billions in revenue, the Márgenes remain críethically narrow, what makes the industry «sensitive to shocks». The capacity of the aerosolíways to maintain these levels of profitability will dependá decómo the supply chain recovers and cóHow to manage rising labor and regulatory costs.
¿Whaté What do you think about these projections?? ¿To beán delays in aircraft deliveries the main factor affecting ticket prices in 2026?
