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We analyze the current situation of the aeronautical industry, their respective perspectives in times of pandemic and a global crisis.
Definitely, we live the worst health crisis, economic and social history of humanity, but there are sectors that have been more affected than others, the aviation industry is one of her.
concretely, we can talk about the airline and tourism industry, these being the hardest hit worldwide and the recovery has started, at a slow pace, with some more optimistic outlooks, but with others who see a future still very far from returning to normal.
In this context, At the moment we see how dozens of countries still maintain their closed borders or have strong restrictive measures such as testing and quarantine requirements still being applied, despite living through this pandemic for more than 1 year and 6 months.
Countries that are trying to return to normality by allowing the return of tourism under some conditions such as the presentation of a driving license vaccination complete, They set the tone for reactivation and show a light at the end of the tunnel, but this could be temporary.
The extent of the threat of the Delta variant of the coronavirus is seen with concern, which could put a new brake and challenges on the airline industry that sees the European summer as the expected start of the real Recovery.
Year 2020 closed with a cumulative drop in 41.7% of flights vs. 2019, with its lowest peak in mid-April last year and having shown a slight improvement due to peak travel season in December 2020 according to data from the prestigious portal Flight Radar 24.
Since the gradual resumption of flights, an increase in demand has been seen thanks to the slight flexibility of some governments, but at a lower rate than expected because the countries that opened put restrictions back in place and those that have not changed their policies have not achieved greater confidence in users to see a strong increase in flights..
This situation has not been the same in all countries, for instance, China and USA lead the recovery of their domestic flights and flexible measures are what have allowed users to fly again, reaching the record of more than 2 million daily passengers.
With almost 5 millions of jobs at risk worldwide, The challenges for the airline industry involve regaining the trust of travelers as the first step, followed by the imminent need to inject fresh capital into their bank accounts, be this with ticket sales, as with state and private credits.
But the challenges don't end here., given that trust has been demonstrated since day one of the pandemic, flying is safe, but the global economy is hard hit and measures are needed in conjunction with governments to promote the return of tourism, business trips and all travelers who during the 2019 marked a historic year for the industry.
With the payroll reduction, adjustment of destinations and grounding of thousands of aircraft, airlines have been able, those that still survive, in sustaining a profit-generating operation, where thanks to the shift of its flights towards the cargo segment it has given a second life to many companies, avoiding bankruptcy and liquidation.
The airline industry is far from emerging from the current crisis, but optimism is felt in the air with the formation of new airlines, throwing of new routes and the orders for new aircraft announced by the major global airline groups that together will be key to the more than expected recovery..
The International Air Transport Association – THERE IT IS gives us guidelines for a recovery that would seem to be little faster than initially expected:
- On 2021, global passenger numbers are expected to rebound as 52% from pre-COVID-19 levels (2019).
- On 2022, global passenger numbers are expected to rebound as 88% from pre-COVID-19 levels.
- On 2023, Global passenger numbers are expected to exceed pre-COVID-19 levels by 105%.
- For 2030, worldwide passenger numbers are expected to have risen to 5.600 millions. That would be a 7% below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to COVID-19.
- After 2030, air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline case of limited market liberalization, which yields an average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of the 3,2%. IATA's pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8%.
Although the outlook is positive, The short-term challenges remain and the uncertainty about the progress of the pandemic keeps the industry in a situation of constant concern about what happens week after week., affecting their planning and recovery plans for their respective destination networks.
For now, the important thing is to take off and maintain the slow climb towards recovery.
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