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A study revealed that achieving the goal of carbon neutrality would increase operating costs by 8% and a 18% al 2050 for the airline industry.
One of the objectives of the airline industry is to reduce its carbon footprint and achieve net zero emissions for 2050 through the implementation of new technologies. A recent Bain study & Company showed that it is unlikely that it will be achieved, especially if the air traffic continues to grow faster than world GDP.
2050: a distant and expensive goal
According to the consultant, airlines' efforts to decarbonize will increase operating costs between 8% and a 18% for 2050 and will significantly erode profit margins. Add to this the fact that sustainable aviation fuel prices for that year will continue to be two to four times higher than the historical average for jet fuel., the outlook is not favorable. At Bain they explain that a more realistic path to advance in this process is related to three key areas.:
- Improve the efficiency of engines and aircraft: It is a fundamental factor to advance in a sustainable and lasting industry over time.. This because, according to research, This would reduce CO emissions2 in a 43%. However, They assure that “it is unlikely that the industry will take these measures to replace fleets ahead of schedule”.
- Optimize operations both in the air and on the ground: incorporating sustainable aviation fuel (SAF for its acronym in English) on a larger scale, CO₂ emissions could be reduced by up to 23%. Nevertheless, The report reveals that, without a change in current government policies, the total supply of PURE will be limited to approximately 135 million metric tons (Mt) on 2050, which is equivalent to approximately 35 % of projected global jet fuel demand.
- Incorporate sustainable elements into the operation: For this, airlines can think about ecological airplanes powered by hydrogen or electricity.. However, It is important to consider that both technologies require a high level of investment and substantial changes in airport infrastructure and aircraft architecture to allow them to replace a substantial part of the existing fleets in the coming years. 30 years. For this reason, it is estimated that its impact could decrease in less than 5% CO emissions2 on the estimated date.
On the other hand, proposals have arisen related to the carbon offset as an alternative solution to achieve carbon neutrality. Bain & Company indicates that airlines can offset residual emissions by purchasing bonds to reduce the impact of greenhouse gases, but clarifies that it would not be enough to achieve the proposed goal. For this, The sector will have to look for multiple solutions to decarbonization if it wants to achieve the objectives. For it, The consultant highlights that the sector must:
- Develop a strategy to ensure an affordable supply of PURE. This may include investment in fuel production (buys, construction or association) and advocating for fair regulation or subsidies for SAFs.
- Rethink fleet renewal plans, taking into account the cost of decarbonization and changes in competitive dynamics, including the different regional mandates for the PURE.
- Mitigate increased operating costs by increasing cabin density, reviewing fleet renewal cycles, adjusting its use and the number of seats, and reviewing network plans as measures that maximize services.
The debate remains open, but without a doubt despite the challenges, The airline industry is the one that does and invests the most to achieve the objective of carbon neutral.
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