Russia – Ukraine: the effects on aviation

Today we will speak from various points of view about the effects that the war between Russia and Ukraine Eastán bringing in a negative way to the aviationón.

With all due respect to the víctimas y pérds that this conflict bélico has betweenído and bringá during the prócoming weeks and understanding that there are situations más important in the midst of these events, I want to share with you another point of view of the events.

Focused as always on the industry toérea that until February was advancing at a very good pace in the recovery process.ón in the middle of a global pandemic, current situations bring a new challengeíor for this sector, that together with sightseeing have been the más hit in the úlast toños.

The Russia vs Ukraine war and its effects on aviationón

When everything seemsíto walk firmly towards a 2022 histórich after the start of the pandemic, external actors again to aviationón have generated a new chaoséunprecedented crime and what to followá ramifying its negative effects throughout the world.

We must understand that the industryérea, like the rest of the globalized world, it works in a chain and all its actors belong to a single sector: aerolídenies, airports, manufacturers, providers, air authoritiesáUticas, etc.

I share with you this vídeo where I analyze más details of the topic that we will talk about in this post:

In this way, with the úlatest events máI know that we friends have been able to see endless news that isán affecting everyone, not only to the industry near the conflict zone, but to the airílines of our regionón.

Thus, We are going to review each of the situations, its immediate and future effects on the industry.

Price of petróleo

Immediately and the effect máIt's important (spaghettién for everyone) is the sustained increase in the price of oilóleo, which is reflected in the cost of the aviation fuelón.

Although the increase is seenígiving before the conflict, since it startedó its rise acceleratedó and this is reflected in higher operating costs for airlinesílines that transfer these values ​​to users, ósea: passages sáIt's expensive.

With an increase in the cost of tickets, fen can be generatedóminus reductionón of demand, putting in a situationón complex to the industry.

Let us remember that if the petr risesóleo, go up tooén the cost of the log chainístic, so the increase will be seená in various sectors.

safety to fly

Although from our continent the risk or threat to the security toérea It is low, I perceive itón of the people in a situationón hostile or that could escalate to greater use of force, generates a drop in demand, cancelaciónumber of flights and reservations.

Esta situationón that if we add it with the increase in the price of oilóleo, puts on the fóformula to the industryéTwo aggravating factors that undoubtedly affect the claim, más aún in Europe and paíclose to the conflict zone.

To counteract the risks to flight safety, several paíNOTAMs have been implemented that restrict, limitíben fly over certain areas between the borders of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, that in fact every dayía se amplía.

Space closureséprisoners

Afterés of the increase in petróleo, The next immediate adverse effect was the closure of the spaces toéprisoners to avoid possible takedowns unintentional of civil aircraft, as has happened before in conflict zones.

Ukraine was the first país in doing itógically, what it generatedó that same moment that hundreds of flights cannot operate in the countryís and others cannot fly over their space atéreo.

Do not fly over a spaceéreo, although in this case it is for security, generates large pélosses for airlinesíareas that should look for other flight plans and paíknow what to fly over, leading many times to increase the durationón of the same in even, several hours más.

Más hours in the air means consumption of más combustible, therefore higher operating costs and if we add to this that the flights that todayíto take alternate routesíeven the tickets sold since before the conflict, the aerosolsíit is a sinán operand on péloss or sacrificing your profits.

sanctions

Before the actions bélicas of russia, various governments have implemented sanctions ranging from financial, commercial collaborations until prohibitionóoverflight and operationón.

Overflights and operationsón

In fact, These have been several of the first actions that different governments have taken, prohibiting overflight, takeoff or landing of Russian-owned aircraft, registered in Russia or controlled by Russia.

It should be noted that on his side, Russia has taken the same measures with all países that implemented the banóoverflight no., leaving the list as follows:

• Albania, Eel, Austria, Bélogic, Islas Vírgenes Britáunique, Bulgaria, Canadaá, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark (including Greenland, Faroe Islands), Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Hungría, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Jersey, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Paílow ses, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, España, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

When this situation occursón, No airlineínea of ​​the different paíIf you are involved you canán fly for an indefinite period exploiting these markets, which immediately generates a great impactón to your destination network, demand in their hub and affectationón to the commercial exchange of the países.

As in the closing of the spaces toéprisoners, aerolílines of these paíyour dutyán tomar alternate routes toún más long and less direct, generating what we already talked about, increase in operating costs by having their aircraft más time in the air.

In other cases, the aerosolsíneas han empezado a cancelar rutas de largo radio, since the autonomyíof its airplanes cannot comply with the new flight times due to space factors.éclosed inmates, wind and load, as is the case with Finnair and its flights to Asia.

trade locks

In the above case, affect youón is equal to each of the aerosolsípoints that cannot beán fly, but commercial blocks or cancellationsón of contracts goes más allá and putá in check at the airíRussian lines especially,

We have already seen how several aerosolíneas and including equipment fútbol have ended their commercial alliances with Aeroflot by canceling sponsorships, c agreementsóshared sayings and más.

Pero hay un hecho que en poco tiempo es posible que obligue a las aerolíRussian moves to suspend majoríto your flights. This is component access lock, maintenance and support announced by both Airbus and Boeing.

The lack of immediate access to spare parts or support from leading manufacturers alsoén on the Russian market, couldíto put the aerol in checkíRussian companies to be left at a certain moment without key components to maintain the día a díand la operationón towards the países to whichúthey can't fly.

Meetá an alternative, maintain access to spare parts throughés of aerosolínew members of paíare aligned with the Russian cause as it is China for instance.

The industry was recovering

IATA itself few días atrás reveló númere positives and the new projectionón led us to that for the 2024 let's go back to núpre-pandemic groupers as for travelers in the world, but the panorama mayíto be affected again.

Antes de la situationón in Ukraine and thanks to the deliver usón of restrictions in many países of the world, were generating an increase in capacity in más de 1.6 million seats worldwideún sample AOG.

In the úlast weeks, AméSouth America has been reporting weekly capacity declines and this has continued with another cut in 6,6% in capacity with Brazil and Chile reporting pélosses.

The landscape is not the best, más aún knowing that this conflict can last months, what to putá in aún más risk recoveryón, affecting airlines' income and plansínew flight development areas, routes and destinations seenían announcing eufórichly since January.

¿Your intention has changedón of travel since the beginning of the conflict? I read you in the comments.